Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is a stock that I have been following for some time now. While the stock has some catalysts upcoming and there are reasons to be excited, there are also reasons to be concerned that investors should consider. Today, we’ll talk about:
- The reasons to be excited;
- the reasons to be concerned;
- what we’re seeing from the stock today; and
- what we’ll be watching for with regard to NVAX ahead.
Coming Catalysts Could Produce Serious Gains In NVAX
At the end of the day, there are several reasons that investors are excited about Novavax. Most importantly are the results from two clinical trials that are expected to be released in the current quarter.
First and foremost, it is expected that NVAX will release data from the PREPARE Phase 3 clinical trial assessing its ResVax candidate as a vaccine for RSV-F. Unfortunately, the condition is a very common one that sends massive amounts of new born babies to the hospital. Of course, investors are hoping for positive data that will lay the stage for the company to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA.
Another reason to be excited about NVAX has to do with the company’s clinical trial assessing NanoFlu. NanoFlu is a seasonal influenza vaccine that goes about vaccinating patients in a different way. With the lack of efficacy seen in common vaccines of today, there is a pressing need for this option, should it prove to be effective. Nonetheless, it is also expected that we will see new clinical data surrounding NanoFlu in the current quarter, shortly following the release of the ResVax data.
Considering these catalysts, it only makes sense that investors are excited about NovaVax at the moment. This is especially the case considering that the company announced yesterday that it would be presenting at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference next Wednesday. With the presentation coming, many are expecting that we will see data on the same day or shortly after.
There Is Risk To Consider
While I, like investors in NVAX, remain hopeful that ResVax will produce positive data, leading to an NDA submission with the FDA, there is a cause for concern. The truth of the matter is that PREPARE has been ongoing for several years as it started back in 2015. This may create a problem as it means that the treatment hasn’t changed, but RSV has. Strains of the illness change annually, making it very difficult to vaccinate for, and this may pose a risk to the ResVax data proving to be positive.
Moreover, ResVax has already failed a clinical trial. Back in 2016, data showed that the vaccine performed just about the same as the placebo with regard to the primary endpoint. To make matters worse, it performed worse than placebo in a key secondary endpoint. Considering this, the risk that the data from the PREPARE trial will be negative is one that deserves serious consideration.
What We’re Seeing From The Stock
While there are risks to consider here, the potential rewards that could come of an investment in Novavax seem to be outweighing the risks in the eyes of investors. That can be seen in the strong movement that we’re seeing on the stock today. As is normally the case, our partners at Trade Ideas were the first to alert us to the gains. Currently (12:01), NVAX is trading at $2.09 per share after a gain of $0.12 per share or 6.09% thus far today.
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What We’ll Be Watching For Ahead
Moving forward, the iWatch Markets team will continue to keep a close eye on NVAX. In particular, we’re interested in following the story surrounding both ResVax and NanoFlu as both assets have the potential to drive an incredible amount of value. Nonetheless, we’ll continue to follow the story closely and bring the news to you as it breaks!
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