Aileron Therapeutics, Inc. (ALRN) Stock: Why It’s Tumbling


Aileron Therapeutics, Inc. (ALRN) is trending down in the market in today’s trading session. The stock, one that is focused in the biotech industry, is currently priced at $0.70 after falling -15.85% so far in today’s session. When it comes to biotech companies, there are a number of factors that have the potential to generate movement in the market. One of the most common is news. Here are the recent stories relating to ALRN:

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Sep-28-19 07:30AM Aileron Presents Positive Interim Phase 2a Data for ALRN-6924 in Combination with Pfizers Palbociclib at the 2019 Congress of the European Society for Medical Oncology
Sep-24-19 05:00PM Aileron to Present Interim Phase 2a Clinical Data for ALRN-6924 in Combination with Pfizers IBRANCE® (palbociclib) in Patients with MDM2-Amplified Cancers at the 2019 Congress of the European Society for Medical Oncology
Sep-19-19 07:24AM How Much Money Does Aileron Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRN) Have Left?
Sep-09-19 08:00AM Aileron Therapeutics Announces Management Change
Sep-03-19 05:10PM Aileron Therapeutics to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 21st Annual Global Investment Conference in New York

Nonetheless, when making a decision with regard to investing, investors should focus on far more than news, especially in the generally speculative biotech space. Here’s what’s happening in regard to Aileron Therapeutics, Inc..

The Performance That ALRN Investors Have Experienced

Although a move down on a single session, like what we’re seeing from Aileron Therapeutics, Inc. may cause fear in some investors, a single session decline alone should not be the basis of a decision to, or not to, invest in a stock. It’s always important to look at trends further out than a single trading day. As it relates to ALRN, here are the returns that investors have seen:

  • Weekly – In the past seven days, ALRN has generated a price change in the amount of -7.42%.
  • Past 30 Days – The return from Aileron Therapeutics, Inc. in the last 30 days works out to 4.65%.
  • Quarterly – In the last 3 months, the company has generated a return that works out to 14.97%
  • Bi-Annually – Over the last six months, we have seen a performance that works out to -57.55% from the stock.
  • YTD – Since the close of last year ALRN has generated a return on investment of -1.45%.
  • Annually – Lastly, throughout the past year, we’ve seen a change amounting to -72.31% from ALRN. In this period of time, the stock has sold at a high of -77.52% and a low price of 56.54%.

Rations That Traders Should Think About

Digging into a few ratios associated with a company can give prospective investors a look of just how dangerous and/or potentially profitable a pick may be. Below are a few of the most important ratios to look at when looking at ALRN.

Short Ratio – The short ratio is a tool that’s used by investors to measure the level of short interest. The higher this short ratio, the more investors are expecting that the price of the stock is headed for declines. Across the sector, biotechnology stocks can have a higher short ratio. However, we tend to see quite a few short squeezes in the industry. Nonetheless, when it comes to Aileron Therapeutics, Inc., it’s short ratio comes to 0.76.

Quick & Current Ratios – The quick and current ratios are ratios that are used to dive into liquidity. Basically, they measure If a company is able to pay for its debts when they come due using current assets or quick assets. Because many biotech companies rely on continued investor support, the current and quick ratios can look damning. However, quite a few good picks in the biotechnology industry do have great current and quick ratios. In terms of ALRN, the quick and current ratios work out to 6.00 and 6.00 respectively.  

Book To Share Value – The book to share value compares the book value of assets currently owned by the company to the price of shares. In this case, that ratio comes in at 1.09.

Cash To Share Value – Finally, the cash to share value ratio compares the total cash on hand to the value of the company’s stock. Many clinical stage biotechnology companies have a hard time keeping cash on hand. So, if you’re looking into a biotechnology stock, this is an important ratio to consider. In terms of ALRN, the cash to share value works out to 1.08.

Analyst Opinions Of Aileron Therapeutics, Inc.

Although it’s rarely a smart idea to blindly follow the opinions of analysts, it is a good idea to use their analysis to validate your own due diligence before making an investment decision in the biotech industry. Here are the most recent moves that we’ve seen from analysts with regard to ALRN.

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Jul-24-17 Initiated William Blair Outperform
Jul-24-17 Initiated Jefferies Buy $20
Jul-24-17 Initiated BofA/Merrill Buy $19

Smart Money Follows Big Money

One thing that I have come to understand so far in my short time in existence has been that good investors tend to follow big money players. In general, investors that want to play it relatively safe will keep their eyes on investments made by institutions and insiders. With that said, what does the big money picture look like when it comes to ALRN? Here’s what’s happening:

  • Institutional Investors – Currently, institutional investors hold 35.30% of the company. However, it’s important to note that the ownership held by institutions has moved in the amount of 9.10% over the last quarter.
  • Investors On The Inside – with regard to insiders, members of the management team and others close to ALRN currently hold 1.20% of the company. Their ownership of the company has seen a move of 0.00% in the past quarter.

What’s Going On With Share Counts?

Traders and investors seem to have a heavy interest in the total numbers of shares both outstanding and available. In terms of Aileron Therapeutics, Inc., currently there are 29.35M and there is a float of 19.48M. These data mean that of the total of 29.35M shares of ALRN currently in existence today, 19.48M are available to be traded in the public realm.

It’s also important to look at the short float. Think about it, when a high percentage of the float available for trading is shorted, the overall opinion among investors is that the equity is headed for a deep dive. When it comes to ALRN, the percentage of the float that is shorted is 1.38%. Most traders believe that a high short percent of the float is considered to be anything over 40%. However, I’ve seen that anything over 26% is likely a play that comes with hefty risk.

What We’ve Seen In Financial Results

At the moment, analysts are expecting that throughout the full year, earnings per diluted share will come in at $-0.86. In the current quarter, analysts see the company producing earnings in the amount of $-0.23. Over the last 5 years, ALRN has generated revenue in the amount of $0 with earnings coming in at 0. On a quarter over quarter basis, earnings have seen movement of 59.50% and revenue has seen movement of 0.

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