Tocagen Inc. (TOCA) Stock: Here’s Why It’s Falling In Value


Tocagen Inc. (TOCA) is falling in the market in today’s trading session. The company, focused in the biotech industry, is presently trading at $0.69 after falling -5.94% so far in today’s session. As it relates to biotech stocks, there are quite a few factors that have the potential to generate price movement in the market. One of the most common is news. Here are the recent headlines associated with TOCA:

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Oct-28-19 08:00AM MDNA.TO: Financing Extends Cash Runway Through 2020; Multiple Catalysts on the Horizon
Oct-03-19 08:00AM Tocagen Announces Restructuring to Focus on Clinical Development
Sep-30-19 06:45AM MDNA.TO: Increased Overall Survival in rGBM Patients Seen with High Dose MDNA55
Sep-13-19 07:40AM The Daily Biotech Pulse: All Eyes On Aimmune, Ritter Stumbles In Late-Stage Study, Catalyst Shelves Offering Plans
Sep-12-19 09:24AM Tocagen Shares Plummet On Failed Late-Stage Brain Cancer Study

However, when making an investing decision, prospective investors should focus on much more than just news, this is especially the case in the highly speculative biotechnology sector. Here’s what’s going on with Tocagen Inc..

Trends That We’ve Seen From TOCA

While a move down on a single session, like the fall that we’re seeing from Tocagen Inc. may make some investors fearful, a single session decline by itself shouldn’t be the basis of a decision to, or not to, invest in a stock. It’s always important to dig into trends experienced by the stock just a single trading session. As it relates to TOCA, here are the returns that we’ve seen:

  • Past 5 Sessions – Throughout the past week, TOCA has seen a change in price in the amount of 13.81%.
  • Past 30 Days – The ROI from Tocagen Inc. in the past month works out to 11.92%.
  • Quarterly – In the last 3 months, the stock has produced a return on investment that works out to -86.68%
  • Past Six Months – In the previous six months, we’ve seen a performance that amounts to -92.99% from the company.
  • This Year So Far – Since the the first trading session of this year TOCA has resulted in a return of -91.63%.
  • Full Year – Finally, throughout the past year, we have seen movement of -93.36% out of TOCA. Over this period, the stock has traded at a high price of -95.34% and a low price of 29.70%.

Ratios That Are Notable

Looking at various key ratios associated with a stock can provide prospective investors a look of how risky and/or potentially profitable a an investment option might be. Here are some of the most important ratios to consider when looking at TOCA.

Short Ratio – The short ratio is a tool that’s used by investors to measure the amount of short interest. The higher this ratio, the more investors believe that the stock is going to tumble. Across the sector, biotech stocks tend to come with a higher short ratio. However, we tend to see a lot of short squeezes in the industry. Nonetheless, in relation to Tocagen Inc., it’s short ratio amounts to 3.58.

Quick & Current Ratios – The quick and current ratios are ratios that are used to dive into liquidity. Essentially, they measure whether or not a company can pay its debts as they mature with only current assets or quick assets. In the biotech space, several companies rely heavily on continued investor support, the current and quick ratios can look damning. Nonetheless, some good picks in the biotech space do have strong quick and current ratios. In terms of TOCA, the quick and current ratios come to 4.20 and 4.20 respectively.  

Book To Share Value – The book to share value compares the current book value of assets owned by the company to the share price. In this case, the book to share value ratio works out to 1.54.

Cash To Share Value – Finally, the cash to share value ratio compares the total amount of cash the company has on hand to the value of shares. Many early stage biotech companies have a hard time keeping cash on hand. So, when investing in the biotech industry, this is an important ratio to consider. In this case, the cash to share value ratio works out to 2.85.

What Analysts Say About Tocagen Inc.

While it’s not a good idea to blindly follow the opinions of analysts, it is a smart idea to use their opinions when validating your own before making an investment decision in the biotech sector. Here are the most recent moves that we have seen from analysts as it relates to TOCA.

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Sep-13-19 Downgrade Citigroup Buy → Neutral
Sep-13-19 Downgrade Chardan Capital Markets Buy → Neutral
Sep-12-19 Downgrade Ladenburg Thalmann Buy → Neutral
Sep-12-19 Downgrade H.C. Wainwright Buy → Neutral
Sep-12-19 Downgrade Evercore ISI Outperform → In-line

Is Big Money Interested In Tocagen Inc.

One thing I’ve learned so far in my brief period in existence is that good investors tend to follow big money players. Usually, investors that want to play it relatively safe will follow investments made by institutions as well as those on the inside. With that said, is big money flowing in regard to TOCA? Here’s what’s happening:

  • Institutional Investors – Currently, institutions hold 36.10% of TOCA. On the other hand, it is important to note that the ownership held by institutions has changed in the amount of -0.48% over the past 3 months.
  • Insiders – with regard to insiders, those close to the situation currently hold 1.80% of Tocagen Inc.. Insider ownership of the company has changed in the amount of 0 over the past 3 months.

A Look At Share Counts

Traders and investors seem to have an interest in the total numbers of shares both available and outstanding. In regard to Tocagen Inc., there are currently 23.94M with a float of 21.78M. These numbers mean that of the total of 23.94M shares of TOCA currently in existence today, 21.78M are able to trade hands in the public realm.

I also like to take a look at the short percent. After all, when a high portion of the float is shorted, the overall feeling among investors is that the stock is headed for a deep dive. In regard to TOCA, the short percentage of the float is currently 13.10%. In general, concerning short percent of the float is anything over 40%. Nonetheless, I have seen that anything over 26% is generally a risky play.


At the moment, analysts are expecting that throughout the full year, earnings per diluted share will come in at $-1.73. In the current quarter, analysts see the company producing earnings in the amount of $-0.70. Over the last 5 years, TOCA has generated revenue in the amount of $188.70% with earnings coming in at -29.40%. On a quarter over quarter basis, earnings have seen movement of 10.50% and revenue has seen movement of 0.00%.

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